The grid for the 2025 Indianapolis 500 is set, and Robert Shwartzman is on pole. He is the first rookie to do so in over 40 years. Only four of the drivers in the 2025 Indy 500 are newcomers. There are, however, twice as many former winners who want to add to their collections.
They include Josef Newgarden, who has won the race twice before, Takuma Sato, who has also won the race twice, and Helio Castroneves, who has won the race four times, tying the mark. Even though Castroneves has won races before, he is one of the biggest longshots at 30-1 for the Indianapolis 500. The new odds for the Indianapolis 500 2025 put Pato O’Ward as a 5-1 favorite. Alex Palou comes in at 11-1, Scott Dixon at 13-3, and Shwartzman at 8-1.
There will be a 109th Indy 500 on Sunday at 12:45 p.m. ET from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Before looking through the 2025 Indy 500 starting grid and making any guesses about the race, check out SportsLine’s most recent picks for the 2025 Indianapolis 500.
This special model for predicting car races was created by Mike McClure, a daily fantasy expert and SportsLine predictive data engineer. It runs each race 10,000 times, looking at things like past results and recent track history.
At the start of the 2025 NASCAR season, the model picked Chase Elliott to win the Clash at Bowman Gray and pay out $300. Then it picked Kyle Larson to win in Miami, which paid out +350, and Christopher Bell to win the All-Star game, which paid out +600.
It picked Larson to win in Las Vegas 21 times out of 50, and it picked Denny Hamlin to win in Bristol 5 times out of 50 and in Richmond 17 times out of 50. Since 2021, the model has correctly predicted 21 NASCAR wins.
You can go back to 2021 and see that picking Formula 1 races has also been very hot. It correctly predicted 10 wins in 2021 and 2022. Then, it correctly predicted Max Verstappen’s rise to fame by correctly predicting all 19 of his wins in 2023 and all seven of his wins in 2024.
From 2023 to now, it has called 32 of the last 51 Formula One wins. If people had done those plays at casinos and on betting apps like the model did, they could have won a lot of money.
Now, the model ran 10,000 times through the 2025 Indianapolis 500. Go to SportsLine to see the full list of predicted winners in the 2025 Indianapolis 500.
Live From the Indy 500: Starting Lineup, Broadcast Details, Weather & How to Watch the 2025 Race”.
Today, in the 109th Indianapolis 500, the Borg-Warner Trophy will be up for grabs. There will be 33 drivers at Indianapolis Motor Speedway competing in the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing.” They all want to win one of the most famous races in motor sports.
Helio Castroneves is trying to win his fifth Indy 500, which would break the record he shares with A.J. Foyt, Al Unser, and Rick Mears for most wins in the race’s history. Two other drivers are also trying to make history on Sunday. Josef Newgarden wants to be the first driver to win the Indy 500 three years in a row. He will have to get past a penalty and a big scandal at Team Penske.
Kyle Larson has a full day and 1,100 miles to go as he tries to become the first driver since Tony Stewart in 2001 to race in both the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 in NASCAR on the same day.
The 2025 Indianapolis 500 will be completely covered by USA TODAY Sports. Keep up with news, scores, and the best parts of all the action by following along:
When does the 2025 Indy 500 begin?
The 109th Indianapolis 500 is set to start at 12:45 p.m. ET with the green flag. Between 9 and 9:20 a.m. ET, cars will start to come into pit lane. At 12:38 p.m. ET, the drivers will be told to start their engines.
Where can I watch the 2025 Indianapolis 500?
Fox will show the 2025 Indianapolis 500. The race starts at 12:45 p.m. ET. Fox will start showing pre-race footage at 10 a.m. ET.
2025 Indy 500 starting lineup.
Here are the drivers starting in the first four rows on Sunday:
(Car number in parentheses, followed by driver, team, manufacturer; R=rookie; W=former winner)
- (83) Robert Shwartzman (R), Prema Racing, Chevrolet
- (75) Takuma Sato (W), Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Honda
- (5) Pato O’Ward, Arrow McLaren, Chevrolet
- (9) Scott Dixon (W), Chip Ganassi Racing, Honda
- (60) Felix Rosenqvist, Meyer Shank Racing, Honda
- (10) Alex Palou, Chip Ganassi Racing, Honda
- (4) David Malukas, A.J. Foyt Enterprises, Chevrolet
- (7) Christian Lundgaard, Arrow McLaren, Chevrolet
- (28) Marcus Ericsson (W), Andretti Global, Honda
- (3) Scott McLaughlin, Team Penske, Chevrolet
- (76) Conor Daly, Juncos Hollinger Racing, Chevrolet
- (20) Alexander Rossi (W), Ed Carpenter Racing, Chevrolet
Top Indianapolis 500 guesses for 2025.
One surprise is that the model has a lot of faith in Alexander Rossi, even though the new odds for the 2025 Indianapolis 500 make him an 18-1 longshot. Rossi’s first season with Ed Carpenter Racing is off to a slow start. He’s only 12th in the IndyCar Series points after 10 races.
His performance at The Brickyard, on the other hand, has always been better than his performance over the course of an IndyCar season. Every year for the past three years, Rossi has finished ninth or worse in the series. However, every year he has also finished in the top five in the Indy 500.
Additionally, it’s important to remember that he won his first Indy 500 race in 2016. He is the last rookie to win The Greatest Show in Racing. He also came in second place in 2019 and has six top-five finishes in nine Indy 500.
It’s strange that 10 other drivers have odds that are the same as or lower than Rossi’s, so people who want to bet on the Indianapolis 500 in 2025 shouldn’t think twice about going with him. Check out SportsLine to see who else you can back.
And this is a huge surprise: Josef Newgarden, who is the defending winner twice and was one of the Vegas favorites, fails badly and doesn’t even make it into the top five. Newgarden finished third in the first race of the season at St. Petersburg, but that’s pretty much the only good thing that’s happened to him this year.
Every other race he’s been in in 2025 has put him 10th or worse, and he’s on track for his worst IndyCar finish in ten years. Before this year, Newgarden has been in the top eight every year for ten years, winning two championships and coming in second three times. He is now eleventh in the results.
Team Penske’s problems can be seen in Newgarden’s problems as a whole. Multiple of Penske’s three drivers have finished in the top five in the Indy 500 Car Series each of the last three years. However, none of Penske’s drivers are currently in the top five this season.
Penske has made 15 starts this season and has not only not won any races, but it has also not even come in second. In the 108-year history of the Indianapolis 500, no one has ever won three times in a row. Newgarden is going up against history, so the odds aren’t in his favor on Sunday. At SportsLine, you can find out which other cars you should stay away from.
How to pick that winner in the 2025 Indianapolis 500.
The model also wants to focus on two other drivers whose chances to win the 2025 Indianapolis 500 are longer than 10-1 or longer. People who bet on these cars might win a lot of money. You can look at all of the model’s predicted winners in the Indianapolis 500 over at SportsLine.
Who do you think will win the 2025 Indy 500? Which long shots have a chance? Check out the most recent odds for the 2025 Indianapolis 500 below, and then go to SportsLine to see the full projected 2025 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard. This is based on the same model that correctly called 21 NASCAR winners and 32 Formula One winners since 2021.
2025 Indianapolis 500 odds (subject to change).
See full 2025 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine.
- Pato O’Ward 5-1
- Alex Palou 11-2
- Scott Dixon 13-2
- Robert Shwartzman 8-1
- Takuma Sato 9-1
- Scott McLaughlin 9-1
- Josef Newgarden 19-2
- Felix Rosenqvist 12-1
- Kyle Larson 18-1
- David Malukas 18-1
- Alexander Rossi 18-1
- Christian Lundgaard 20-1
- Marcus Ericsson 20-1
- Kyle Kirkwood 25-1
- Conor Daly 25-1
- Colton Herta 25-1
- Will Power 25-1
- Santino Ferrucci 25-1
- Helio Castroneves 30-1
- Ed Carpenter 60-1
- Graham Rahal 80-1
- Sting Ray Robb 80-1
- Ryan Hunter-Reay 80-1
- Louis Foster 80-1
- Kyffin Simpson 100-1
- Jack Harvey 100-1
- Devlin DeFrancesco 100-1
- Christian Rasmussen 100-1
- Callum Ilott 100-1
- Rinus Veekay 100-1
- Nolan Siegel 100-1
- Marcus Armstrong 100-1
- Marco Andretti 100-1
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